Episode Transcript
[00:00:00] Speaker A: Predictable, Predictable Predictions.
[00:00:01] Speaker B: Predict Predictable predictions. Predictable.
[00:00:03] Speaker C: Predicted.
Predictable.
[00:00:08] Speaker A: Predictive programming. Episode 7 Absolutely Colossal Guest today. Yeah, Our biggest by far prediction market trader PMT is here in the studio. Welcome, thanks for coming on.
[00:00:20] Speaker B: Yeah, thank you so much for having me. I've watched some of your episodes in the past with Audi. I saw you guys were talking about the combos parlays I did the other week. That was.
[00:00:29] Speaker A: We were talking about you. Yeah, yeah. But your vibe coated.
[00:00:32] Speaker C: Yeah.
[00:00:33] Speaker A: Oh, we could just jump in there. Let's do background. Let's get a little background in.
[00:00:37] Speaker C: Why don't you tell us like non prediction market. Who are you really quick?
[00:00:42] Speaker B: So my name I guess PMT on Twitter. A little bit of background on myself. I'm 26.
Before kind of jumping in and this was literally just three weeks to a month ago. Full into like prediction markets, kind of the content side then trading.
I was actually a CPA for five years. So I worked at a big four firm for a few years, got my cpa, then I.
[00:01:05] Speaker C: Which one?
[00:01:07] Speaker B: If you don't want to say PwC. I mean I already did the P. I mean but. But yeah, I worked at PwC.
Then I went to a private equity firm, worked in corporate accounting, slash kind of finance, mixed role there and then.
So that's like my background. And just a month ago, you know, quit my job, just moved to New York literally four days ago to kind of go all in on prediction markets, you know, content.
[00:01:32] Speaker A: And you quit your job. This is your full time role.
[00:01:34] Speaker C: Okay.
[00:01:36] Speaker B: Yes.
[00:01:36] Speaker A: And you live in New York four days ago?
[00:01:39] Speaker B: Yeah, I mean I'm literally out of a hotel room.
If anybody's watched my streams, you know how a hotel room will have like those tiny little corner tables with like two chairs. I have like I bought a monitor the first day I got here and then I went to a Best Buy. They had like a one of those mics that's for like gaming that like lights up in all these different colors. So I've been using that because all my clothes, everything stuck in moving pods because I moved from LA across the country, so living out of like a suitcase and in Nordstrom rack.
[00:02:11] Speaker A: Sickos. Only on this show.
[00:02:12] Speaker B: Yeah, yeah, so.
[00:02:14] Speaker A: So you started doing that a month ago, but when did, when did you start doing prediction market trading in earnings?
[00:02:22] Speaker B: Yeah, so I started and this is actually probably gonna be a surprise because I know like prediction markets for everyone. Like the last couple months have been like blowing up, especially on Twitter. There's like so many new faces, you know, so many big people popping up in like the prediction market like ecosystem, especially as like, you know, Kalshee Polymarket, all of them are partnering with a lot of these like big creators.
I got into prediction markets back in July 2024 in the run up to the last presidential election.
The first wager I ever went into was who would Trump pick as his VP. And I went in on JD Vance.
I think I did like $200 on it because I'd been like really into politics at the time.
But within like a day of looking on these platforms, I was quickly like, whoa. Like these are priced like really inefficiently like some of the markets.
What price did you get on JD? I got like 15 cents. So he was kind of an underdog at the time.
[00:03:26] Speaker A: Yeah, yeah, he was. He was a surprising announcement even right up until the moment.
[00:03:31] Speaker C: Can you. Why was your logic on JD So.
[00:03:34] Speaker B: My logic on JD was like so rudimentary. It was just like I followed politics really closely on like Twitter. Like a ton of like big names I would kind of follow. I felt really in touch with like who was going to get announced.
I mean it wasn't like 100% for me, but I've always, and I'll get into this too, but I've always been super into just like gambling in general.
So like I played poker a lot, a ton.
[00:03:57] Speaker C: Were you winning poker player or recreational poker player?
[00:04:00] Speaker B: I was a winning poker player, but I wasn't like a big time poker player. Like, let's finish the J.D.
sorry, I'm going into big.
[00:04:07] Speaker A: But you made his eyes go big like dinner plates.
[00:04:11] Speaker B: Yeah, but on the JD thing. So I went on JD at 15 cents and then I sold my shares like a two days later because I was looking at all these markets and I would find things that like, you know, traditional things like, you know, in sports, you guys had all the odds jam people for all those like so traditional like arbitrage strategies, like seeing what was available on these prediction markets where it was like there would be a market for Will Biden drop out of the race and then there's a market for will Biden be the nominee. Like those are kind of 100% correlated theoretically, right? Like if, if he drops out, he's not going nominee, but they trade at like a 5 cent difference. So you know what, my strategy in the beginning, and I have a ton of old videos kind of going back to this was I would put like $5,000 at a 5 cent and then eventually the markets would correct. I'd make like 200 bucks. But again I was doing all this for fun on the side, just seeing what I could build it to and that's kind of how I got my start. Was doing like completely very low risk, you know.
You know, arbitrage strategies.
[00:05:15] Speaker C: I guess this is top down sport, this top down sports betting.
[00:05:19] Speaker B: That's what it is.
[00:05:19] Speaker A: We call it the top down. Is that phrase ever come up?
[00:05:22] Speaker B: No, no, just, just arbitrage. But like arbitrage can be used in so many different ways because people will use arbitrage in terms that I don't, I'm like, I, you know, in sports.
[00:05:30] Speaker A: We, we say bottom up would mean you're actually constructing the odds, you know, from the ether. Right. I can take non pricing data and accumulate or put it all together and come up with some fair value, whereas bottom down means I don't know how to do any of that. But I'm looking at what's happening in the market, trusting that somebody else has done it and making some conclusions. And then people sometimes categorize different approaches into buckets that way or like a similar one that I've seen you do. Right. Is the implied derivatives like you were talking, I think today about if no inches is trading at this price pregame, then at halftime the probability should have more or less cut in half because half the broadcast is over. Right. So if we can infer that the pregame line was roughly efficient, like we know what the halftime line should be.
[00:06:22] Speaker B: That exactly. Yeah. I'm very much top down under that context. I am almost never like it's funny because I, while I moved, like moved here, I've gotten in touch like the last few weeks with like a few people that wanted to like do interview shows for stuff like that. And one of them was like sending questions and they're like what's your thoughts on like the mayoral campaign? Who's going to win? And I'm like I have no idea. Like I would not have any informed, you know, opinion.
[00:06:48] Speaker A: Sports are so clearly these discrete events in a way that a lot of the PM markets are not where it's a little hard, it's more like futures.
[00:06:57] Speaker B: Right.
[00:06:57] Speaker A: I was just thinking you can't really do CLV on futures as cleanly. And that's, that's the kind of thing that maybe is a little hard. Are there other sources of truth that people are starting to agree around? Like you know. Well, for instance, the kind of thing that might start happening to you is people will say I played no Hamas at $0.30 and later on stream PMT bought it at $0.31. Ergo, I did a great job because everybody knows he's sharp and a winner. So if I got the same price as him, I must be doing good. Like, are there. Are there emerging, like, benchmarks like that that people are starting to point to and say, this is my proof that I'm doing this? Well, if that question makes sense.
[00:07:42] Speaker B: Yeah, that's. That's a funny thing to bring up. And I think, like, it definitely is. Does bring its own difficulties where, like, if I'm actually gonna be entering trades live, it's like I'm just gonna get penny jumped to the max. I mean, the funniest example of this was like, I had that clip where I had Powell saying the word pardon, you know, and he coughed. Yeah, he coughed and said pardon. What was hilarious is I was on stream the night before, basically just talking to people in the chat, researching what we were gonna play, and someone in the chat says, pardon was trading at like $0.10 the night before, maybe $0.09. There was like. And when I say $0.09, I mean, you could have bought like 2,000 shares at $0.10. So, like legit you could gotten filled. And someone. It was trading like that because people think of the word pardon in the sense of Trump pardons. And obviously Powell never talks about Trump, so he's never gonna say it. And then someone commented, wait, if Powell sneezes or coughs and says pardon me, would that count? And I'm like, oh, my gosh, that's hilarious. So we started pulling up these past speeches of that that Powell would give, and this was all live on stream. And we would basically just look in the YouTube transcripts, find where he said pardon me. And I think in three out of four of the random ones or something like that, I just pulled up, he had said, pardon me. And the best part is when they publish official transcripts, which all the Sharps are using to price these, they don't include when he's coughs and says pardon me. Because why are they going to put.
[00:09:12] Speaker A: Oh, that's awesome. Yeah, so that's beautiful.
[00:09:16] Speaker B: Isn't that hilar?
So. So we could see it in the YouTube transcripts, because it's just a YouTube automated thing. And after. During that stream, I then went back to the order book and it had gone up to 40 cents.
[00:09:27] Speaker C: But how did the rules grade it does the rules grade? Because if it's not on the official transcript, is it?
[00:09:32] Speaker B: So the rules resolve based on video first.
[00:09:34] Speaker C: Got it. It would have.
[00:09:35] Speaker B: And we had talked about this too, because we were all but if you're.
[00:09:38] Speaker A: Really worried too, it probably always snaps to 99 cents and you could sell out. You know, if you're like, ah, it might not be in the official transcript.
[00:09:44] Speaker B: Exactly, but going back to like live trading, it was at 9 cents, 10 cents and we were looking at live. And then once I felt confident enough to enter it, somebody had bought all the shares up to like 40 cents. So then I got in at I don't know, 33 or 35 cents. But like, had I not been streaming and someone pinged me that, you know.
[00:10:02] Speaker C: All right, so also, are you being more of a. It sounds like you're almost only taking. Are you ever making anything?
[00:10:09] Speaker B: I actually would say like I prioritize making for sure more than taking.
[00:10:15] Speaker C: I assume cause of the fees.
[00:10:16] Speaker B: Yeah, the fees. But also a big thing about it, probably even more so than the fees, I would say is the fact that, you know, in some of these lower liquidity mentions, like there's going to be spreads especially like as you are farther away from the market so. Or like the event happening. So you kind of have to be a maker to get like build up a big position slowly. And the other thing I would say is like anyone who watches my streams, like, please, if I, if I post like a pic or something, be a maker. Because sometimes, you know, if it's a low liquidity market and I will say a pick and somebody wants to like, you know, you'll see it jump up and it's like if I will get something at 45 cents, that doesn't mean I would get it at like 65 cents, you know, but I mean, that's so obvious to like, but you know, I.
[00:11:02] Speaker A: No, it's not obvious to a lot of people, all of those.
[00:11:06] Speaker C: Unfortunately it's not. All right, I'm going to ask you maybe a condescending question.
[00:11:12] Speaker A: Why would you do that?
[00:11:13] Speaker C: Because that's just who I am.
Why should I follow you? Because you're giving. How can I trust that you're winning if you're giving all this alpha out?
How could you? How do I know that you're a good trader?
[00:11:25] Speaker B: I would not tell people to follow me. Like, like, I don't want my selling point to be. Follow me because I'm a great trader. Because like there's so many other people that are way better than me that you could follow. I wouldn't even say I'm like a great trader at all. Like, like, I hope that's not my selling point. My selling point that I want to be and sure. Like, lately all that I've been doing is like mostly these mentioned market streams and stuff like that. I want my content to be fun. I want it to be informative.
I also think like in the industry, like naturally there's probably gonna be like bad actors. So I try to like, like, I'm never gonna sell you anything and you know, like.
And then.
So let me think, what was the last piece? I was going to say that. Yeah, yeah, I want my stuff to be informative and I don't want to just be trading. So my favorite stream that I'm most proud of was the Swifty stream I did. Because I don't know if any of you.
[00:12:20] Speaker C: I saw it.
[00:12:20] Speaker B: That was good. That was like my favorite stream ever.
[00:12:23] Speaker C: You had a bunch of. You had that one, the one guest that was a huge Swifty too, right?
[00:12:27] Speaker B: Like, yes, that's the one. Like, so I had I to explain the stream. There were like markets on Kalshee for like, how many albums will Taylor sell? Like, there was just like an exorbitant amount of like Taylor Swift markets and you know, they had like decent volume. I mean, nothing crazy, but like my whole thesis that I wanted to do was like, I knew someone in real life that was like a. A huge Swifty fan. Also huge Sabrina Carpenter fan. But B, like he was very much so. Like, if there's a sharp in music, it was this guy. Granted, he's never been on a prediction market or anything. Like, I have talked to like some big actual music sharps who have made like six figures and then I'll ask him the same question and he'll answer like the same way. Like, it's crazy how much for fun. This guy knows about Billboard rankings and like album sales. Like, it's insane.
So I thought it'd be hilarious to bring him on stream, market it as just like, oh, I'm having a Swifty on. And then I'm sure people would comment, be like, oh, you really think you're gonna make money and be a Swifty fan on whatever. Like, you know, just kind of playing on that a little bit.
And yeah, he came on and obviously he's gonna be speaking the sense of like, oh, this is a lock. So it was like super fun. Cause something's 70%. And he went, I wanna say I think it was 10 for 12. Like I made like 3 grand on just tailing all his picks. And what's crazy is I would have made more, but I originally tailed his picks for like album sales. And then everybody was like, no, These are only pure album sales. So in person and it'll never like, hit.
So then people convinced me to sell, but she, she blew through all the out like this was priced. The thing you told me to, to trade for album sales was priced at like 15% likelihood. And of course I sold out. But yeah, I love.
[00:14:10] Speaker A: There is an art to having very, very good information from somebody who doesn't really understand probability or trading and trying to turn it. We've had this before, right, where like, you have some inside source, but as soon as they find out that you're prepared to drop 20 grand on what they're talking about, they get very scared and they're like, I actually. Oh, well, I don't know. And it's like, no, no, no, just speak plain English. Let me worry about turning it into a number. And that can be like a sensual dance almost.
[00:14:40] Speaker C: I used to work at someone with a very big political background who's in the White House, and I'll ask him political questions and he'll always give it in 100% or 0% answer. So then based on how he's responding to me, I have to decipher, like, what is the true probability going back to the, to the streaming aspect. So let's talk about your career then. In the future, do you perceive you're going to make more money and support yourself more through your trading, which you are clearly profitable or sponsorships and like streaming revenue from media deals, etc.
[00:15:12] Speaker A: I'd like to know, like, do you see yourself eventually? Because I've seen you mess around with vibe coding and building bots and we'll talk a little bit more about the parlay one in a second. But do you see yourself eventually being an automated market maker going in ambitious on it?
[00:15:28] Speaker B: Are you.
[00:15:29] Speaker A: Do you still feel like right now the content, social piece of it is the highest ROI avenue for you?
[00:15:38] Speaker B: For me, right now, definitely content. That's like my 100% focus and my thought process there is. It's like I'm going to just like go give it my all, 100%, like, you know, 16 hours a day, whatever, nonstop.
Because, like, I feel like there's so much interesting stuff in like, prediction markets. Like, it's just such an interesting, like, niche world and like having been in it for like the last year and a half and seeing all like, just the hilarious stuff that happens with like some of these markets and the big names too that are like all in these discords and whatever. Like, I just think, like, the content aspect is like, totally there. And I think long term there's definitely like a big ROI there and I think it's something that I'm going to like, really enjoy and like, have fun with too. I've always wanted to make content and I enjoy it.
So I would say, yeah, I'm definitely going to go like for now, 100% into content and then, you know, if content doesn't work out in the next like six months, then I'll know fast and then it's like I'll go into just trading, you know, full time, like try that out, you know, for a few months because maybe that won't work out.
[00:16:45] Speaker C: It's like, oh, I guess you see your friend foster make 300k, why do you decide that?
Why not be like him? And why instead stream and give that. I'm just curious what your thought process was, how to.
[00:16:57] Speaker B: Yeah, it's something I definitely like, think about a lot. And like, you know, I guess like right now my thought process is like, I've never, back when I was still trading and like made most of my money, right? I would have like maybe five, ten hours a week to be able to like trade and you know, so the idea of like doing it full time for me, I Wonder how much ROI there is there between having, you know, 60 hours a week available to trade versus just having 10 to 20 hours.
I'm not saying it's not there, but like, I, like, I would, if I mentally want to, like stop doing the content, do all this trading. I would kind of push myself to just be like, can't I use my time more efficiently that I have now to like, trade more and like make use of those 20 hours? I guess so. And I feel like now too, I'm in a position where I get to still do content. Obviously that's most of my time right now, but I can still trade, you know, so it's like I can at least bring in some income from trading and then I can also just see how I'm doing trading.
If I start finding opportunities that are definitely the combos parlays that I was talking about. That's a huge opportunity that granted, I don't know a lot about the space. I'd have to learn it more obviously, but sounds like a really interesting opportunity.
[00:18:19] Speaker C: I mean, the YouTube thing with a pardon was the sickest thing.
That's like a real sports betting edge right there.
That's the kind of stuff that really makes me excited.
[00:18:31] Speaker A: What other kind of data feeds are you? And let me go even more general.
I was tweeting about this today or at least to Adi.
There is so much low hanging fruit in building the infrastructure and the supporting selling the proverbial shovels during the gold rush.
Somebody needs to be building all the B2B pieces of this Oracle like settlement should be a standalone product that none of the exchanges own so they don't have to deal with any customer service issues. Like that's just so obvious and will be so huge successful. But then there's the B2C of like trader tools and creating high quality data feeds or, or dashboards, whatever. What, what are you seeing emerge? What are you leveraging? Is there like secret stuff you're using?
Is there stuff you've built? Like what's going on there?
[00:19:25] Speaker B: So I would say to answer the first question, I totally agree. In this environment there is going to have to be just advanced trading tools that people are going to start building especially as volumes increase more and more and more and then if eventually you get more institutional money on these platforms, potentially long term.
So I definitely agree that there has to be something. What I will say right now is I feel that there isn't really a big, you know, commercially available tool that has necessarily emerged. Like there's obviously things out there that people are using. For me personally there's literally one tool that I actually pay for and it's just a tool to get like historical data on transcripts for mentioned markets. Basically it just makes it easy to where this person is putting in time every month to consolidate all these transcripts. So I can put it in a simple interface to kind of analyze.
So yeah, I'll pay him $200 a month because I'm going to get ROI there.
And then outside of that like most of what I've used is all proprietary tools and that's just things that have been vibe coded mostly not by me, mostly by Foster, like has. We've kind of, when we were working together we would just talk about potential edges, finding edges and things and then you know he would build a tool and it's like unbelievable the things that you could vibe code that like there was a time where we were just making so much like money that was like very low risk, just like. And I guess I can get into that, you know of like some of the things that he built.
So. So to get into that what I would talk about is like I mentioned like there was a time where I was like one of the top AI, you know, model traders on Kalshi, right. And then again like people would ask me all these questions like, well, what do you think about this AI model? Like, I really don't know much at all about AI models. So if you want to know like my edge of why I was the. It was we had just built a. Well, I say we again. This is Foster at the time built a tool basically to just. Ella Marina is what these AI model things resolve on. That's a third party leaderboard that's based off of. Users will test a model, they won't know what model they're testing. They'll test it against another model. So they'll give you GPT5, they'll give you Gemini 2.5. You try them both out. I like this one more. Then they assign an ELO score and the ranking leaderboard is updated on a completely randomized basis. So it's not like it's every week at this time. It's not like it's. So we basically just had a tool that would just scrape for exactly when the leaderboards updated. We would just take all the shares to adjust for the new information. And it gets to the point where like new information is unbelievable. Like something might be priced 50 50, but if this new model is hits the leaderboard it should immediately go 90 10. You know, like it's. So that was my strategy which is like so simple. I'm not so like going back to like, I'm not a genius guy, right? This is like complete.
[00:22:19] Speaker C: This is great because I'm seeing the spare loads between this and like obviously all I care about really is the sports side of things is insane. This is basically the equivalent of like you get an injury news.
Well, if Kevin Durant is now out, that's pretty massive for the Houston Rockets. So let's go bet against them and vice versa. And I know you talked to me about this. What is the intersection between PM and sports betting been for you?
There's a lot of terminology that you may not understand. I don't understand from your side, et cetera, et cetera. What's that been like?
[00:22:54] Speaker B: I think it's been. It's been very funny. I guess I'll. I would speak to it more from like the Twitter side. Like so definitely I'll see my posts will start getting into like sports gambling, Twitter. And then I'm like, oh no.
[00:23:05] Speaker A: Like, you know, these guys are the worst.
[00:23:08] Speaker B: Yeah, I get all these like comments that are just like. I'm like. At first I was like, okay, I'll like write a response to some of these. And then I'm like never doing that again, you know But I mean, you know, it's, it's, it's funny because now my feed is like a mix of both. And like, I respect certain things about like sports Twitter versus, like, obviously sports Twitter probably hates prediction market Twitter with.
[00:23:30] Speaker A: Like, but they hate everything. So you, if you've known them for a while, you'd be like, they're just negative people. You can't take it too personally.
[00:23:37] Speaker B: Yeah, but you got to like a little bit about it because it's like it's negative, but also like, they will, they will just. They'll complain first, like blunt truth on like everything. Just like whether or not it's like, they're probably just complaining overblown, but you know what I mean? There's like some weird honesty to that, I guess, even though oftentimes they'll probably be somewhat wrong on something.
But the other intersection that's funny is the terms, which I think is funny because now sports people are on exchanges. So then the strategies that I'll be doing, I had that one video go big and it was like everybody was like, oh, prediction market people discover past posting all this stuff.
So it's really funny seeing the intersection of terms there. And then there's terms from prediction market like bonding, that I think golden pan answer. I.
Yeah, like, he was talking, he had a post the other day that was like, I don't think Richard market knows what bonding is. Which I thought was like hilarious because I love that term. That's like one of my favorite.
[00:24:28] Speaker A: You know what's funny is I said this to Chris was like, they call it bonding, which is so dangerous because these things can go to zero. You know, it's like picking. Sometimes they use the phrase in sports, picking up pennies in front of the steamroller. Like you can only do it for so long before you come. And then I remember like, oh, yeah. The reason bonds pay yield is because there also is some risk of default.
I guess they are bonds. I mean, you know what I mean? But it is a real factor.
So I mentioned a week or two ago how I really feel like.
[00:25:00] Speaker C: The.
[00:25:00] Speaker A: Mention markets on sports broadcast specifically could be a big opportunity to bridge the gap between sports and new PM markets. And one thing I found so fun is on my side.
I sell a lot of touchdown score plays on star running backs. Guys who got goal line work right. Like guys who are 60% to score a touchdown in a game. Sell tons of parlays of those guys. Like, that's just super popular. And so anytime somebody gets really close to scoring a touchdown, but is stopped at the one or like just shy of the one. I'm like, no, no, first and goal from the one. It's Kyron Williams. It's, you know, it's Jalen Hurts, it's these guys. Ugh, I don't want to see.
And then I was watching some of your streams and. Cause you're on no inches. You're the exact same way. You're like, please be a touchdown, please. Oh God, it's first and one. I can't do first and one. They're gonna say inches. It's like that is so similar. Like the handicap is extremely similar. And I think stuff like that, like the more he would, I bet in pricing some of those he found like you kind of had to learn about how the rhythm of a football game goes. Like, well, when do these like, I bet you've also been looking into just inches come up a little bit more in the second half than the first half. Are they more likely to go for it on fourth down, which is going to bring it up like that part I think is a way that a lot of these could start to bridge a gap.
[00:26:28] Speaker B: Yeah, 100%. And like I talked about this as well, like in a similar vein because I did some other like podcast some guy had. But I think like you're seeing like right on like Kalsi for example, like sports volumes are going crazy. And I know a lot of like long time prediction market users coming from like the predicted days and all, you know, they're like, man, like it feels like sports are like taking focus. So like some people aren't as like happy with sports, but like overall I mean, I think like the hope is you have all these new sports users coming in, being able to transition them to other products and other markets. And I think like announcer mention markets that they're doing is like a great tool to potentially do that bridge to where it's like, oh, okay, I think I'm normally just a sports player, but what I can do this on an NFL game. And then they had last weekend like a college game day kickoff, will the field goal hit. Which turned out to be a whole rules. Like it was funny but you know, that was like that's another great market that I think like having sports people you could potentially convert into mentions in other markets.
[00:27:31] Speaker A: Let me give you two scenarios and you tell me which one you think is more likely and which one you'd prefer.
One is all of the new market types that we already see on PMs, mentioned markets, political markets, et cetera become more and more popular.
The market makers get more and more accurate at them. Therefore, the spreads get tighter, the quantities go up, and basically what we already see now solidifies into new, real highly liquid categories that trade at very sophisticated levels.
The second option is we recognize that the fun is in it being new and unsolved.
The PMs and their users keep inventing new categories of markets quicker than any institution can really figure out how to price them. There's a constant influx of low liquidity, highly inefficient, messy new, figuring this out on the fly. Stuff that always kind of stays in that like we're fighting for a few grand. I can't believe this worked for a few months. We were the first ones to do it kind of territory. Where do you, where do you see things more likely to go? And where would you prefer things go if it was just going to be one of those two?
[00:28:49] Speaker B: In terms of where I see things going, I think it's like a little bit of a mix of both. But I'll give you an answer to not be boring. Like, so I would say thank you.
[00:28:56] Speaker A: That's why you got content guys. Dude, content guys just say stuff.
[00:29:00] Speaker B: But I would say number two is most likely. But I would, I would.
[00:29:05] Speaker A: Number two being keep spamming new stuff.
[00:29:07] Speaker B: Spamming new stuff and keeping it crazy. But I would say, you know, the offset of that is that while you'll have all these like, you can look at it now, right, you have thousands of markets, but there's, you know, like if we take out sports, right, there's a few political markets that get a crazy amount of volume. And then you have like all these other markets, some that are doing like pretty small market. So I think you'll continue to have like all these markets, some of which are like very low liquidity, low volume, but then you'll have a few that are like, you know, actually high volume markets. And then also that's where market makers are going to continue to just add on to like sports politics.
You know, I think what I love most about prediction markets is markets where you can't find like an external source of like how this should be priced, right? Like having sports on prediction markets. It's like it's probably easier to market make because you can look at what sportsbooks are giving on these odds versus like prediction markets. Like when, you know, Andy Byron had that whole affair, the astronomer CEO at that whole affair. It's like, how the heck would you ever price this? You know what I mean? There's no other place you can get a price for it. Same thing with government shutdown. You know, like, if you try to price this yourself, you're gonna get all these media outlets saying, yes, this is Democrats, Republicans, whatever. It's very hard to price. And those are the types of markets I love on prediction markets. And I think those will always kind of exist and you will always have on the outer tail, like these low liquidity, hard to price markets, maybe without like designated market makers. But there will be like a group because like, if institutional money comes on these platforms, right, they're not going to be trading mention markets, you know, like, those are just always.
[00:30:46] Speaker A: I think they will.
[00:30:48] Speaker C: But yeah, I'll be the negative one here. Henry's always the positive one.
I said last week, my fear with mention markets is what I think you're doing is phenomenal. And I saw the opposite. I hope that people follow you. Hop on a prediction markets and then come over to the sports side. Okay? Not go to the sports. And then you both. Can happen to both of us.
But my fear is if mention markets blows up, it becomes too riggable.
And now like, hey, if that announcer that you're betting, you know, you're predicting on, or you have, or even like some politician that's giving a speech that you're predicting on can make 50, $100,000, well, maybe they'll start rigging it. And that's when the government gets involved and we don't want any of that.
Do you see that my fear there?
[00:31:42] Speaker B: I see your fear. And I guess I would say because, like, this has kind of come out a bit with like, we had the Nobel Prize markets. People were like, was this insider is such a thing? Because now it's funny, you have sports Twitter and prediction market Twitter also coming together. And it's like, there's a lot of people on prediction market Twitter. They're like, yeah, insider information. Like, we're the truth. We have all the news first. But like, if you want these platforms to grow and have like institutional people on these platforms, like, nobody's gonna market make if you have just a ton of insiders. I mean, it's.
[00:32:13] Speaker A: So the market makers have to win.
[00:32:15] Speaker B: Yeah, yeah. I mean, a little bit.
[00:32:16] Speaker A: Yeah, pretty much a little bit.
[00:32:18] Speaker B: Yeah, yeah.
But, you know, so I can see a world where, like, it definitely becomes a higher risk. Because right now, if somebody were to say that, like, somebody quote, tweeted one of my posts today and was like, oh, these markets, they gotta get rid of them. And it was like a Trump, I Think it was a Trump speech. Maybe it was the announcer one. But I'm like, okay, is a guy gonna really, like, risk his whole reputation and maybe get like 3,5000?
[00:32:42] Speaker C: We're so far away. Like, right, right. How much could he really win right now?
[00:32:47] Speaker B: Not.
[00:32:47] Speaker C: Not a much, but.
But if you continue to grow, which looks like you are, and you will be, maybe those 3 to 5,000 becomes 30 to 50,000. The dildos.
[00:32:56] Speaker A: The WNBA dildos, for example.
[00:32:58] Speaker B: Right.
[00:32:59] Speaker A: Because it's like, how much does it cost to attend a WNBA game? And what is the downside of getting kicked out of the game early versus if it's a big meme, like five figures of liquidity that is now. I mean, it's also a one off. I don't think you're going to get the.
[00:33:16] Speaker B: I will say there are federal government involved, but I'm very happy that like. And I'm very happy Kalsi didn't list those like, markets specifically for like, and I think like, outside of even just insiders, like, it's kind of influencing them too. And then if you think long term you want to get integrated with like the NBA or so, like, I just feels like it's kind of a bad look.
[00:33:37] Speaker A: Everybody's got to sort that out and kind of figure out.
[00:33:40] Speaker B: Exactly. And like.
[00:33:41] Speaker A: But it's a delicate act to make conscientious decisions about things like that while also moving full speed ahead at 120mph at all times, which is equally important for just the normalization process of the whole product.
[00:33:58] Speaker C: All right, right now sports do 90% of volume.
[00:34:01] Speaker B: Ish.
[00:34:02] Speaker C: Where do you see that number being in five years from now?
[00:34:08] Speaker B: That's a good question.
I would say, I think so five years is like way out. But like, if you want to get two years, three years, I think a year from now, sports volumes are going to stay really, really high. And I mean, right, you're seeing like combos starting to come out on kalsheet. Like, these are things that are just going to be this unlock that I see more and more users coming onto. So I think a year from now sports are going to stay. I mean, you'll have some spikes with like midterms, things like that.
I will say, like, it seems like there are pushes for like culture, markets, all these other ones to start popping up more and more. So I think one year out it'll probably still be a lot of sports, but I think give it a few more years, like, eventually it'll start to kind of spread to other markets.
And I mean, I think the markets it's going to gravitate towards though would probably in my head it's like a Fed interest rate market or like a jobs report market, like things that there's actually like a solid use case for like institutional capital to want to hedge things. Because that is a totally, I think true like statement of the fact of how bizarre it is if you're trying to like hedge a presidential election or you're trying to hedge whatever. It's like, oh, I should short oil stocks or I don't know.
[00:35:29] Speaker C: You know, it's so funny. We had, there was baskets like Bloomberg built some baskets that you, if you wanted to hedge when it was Kamala versus Trump, a Trump presidency or Kamala president, you could buy these group of stocks or these group of stocks for Kamala and it would actually just been cleaner to just predict it on a prediction market.
[00:35:50] Speaker B: Yeah, yeah, 100%. And I mean I think like, I think going into like 2028 now these. Now that like cow she is regulated. You know, obviously like poly market is coming to the US apparently soon. Like so.
[00:36:04] Speaker C: Well, maybe poly market can use a government shutdown market to figure out when they'll probably be there.
[00:36:10] Speaker B: Yeah, I mean the, I don't know the odds are moving on that one. But yeah, I mean I just think like going into 2028 for like the election market alone, like volumes to me are going to be like just parabolic. I mean it was a few billion in this last one, but like just on that point alone, granted, it's also not just going to be like institutional money, but like if, if this ball keeps rolling and like prediction markets are here to stay.
[00:36:36] Speaker C: A few Years from now, 2028 could do 10 billion.
[00:36:38] Speaker B: Yeah, easy, easy.
So that's, that's where I see like the volume coming away from prediction markets. And I think once they also build more tools to like think about ways to like markets like that. And I think that's mostly gonna be like economic markets, you know. And maybe if there's a world with like something related to stock prices or something like that, like where you're kind of getting into that like option.
[00:37:03] Speaker C: So I don't understand that argument because I see all the like crypto bros loving like you can predict bitcoin price at this or like that stock price of this.
But why? Because you can just do it with options and stocks already, which already are insanely liquid and probably have less fees.
Explain that to me. Cause I don't get that.
[00:37:26] Speaker B: Yeah, I mean like I would Say, like, for. I don't know how it works in like crypto. If there's like a ton of like, I'm not a crypto, but like, for like stock prices, like, I don't know. I mean, that's a good question of, like, why not just get a call option or put or something. But like, I just think with what you can build on prediction markets, surely there's something you could make in terms of reacting to stock price movement that would be beneficial versus just a standard option. But again, options are this fully built out industry with insane volume. So it would have to be really good to cut into that. But I couldn't give you an accurate idea of, oh, here's a financial instrument they should.
But it's a good, It's a good point. Like, it'd be something they'd have to battle for sure.
[00:38:19] Speaker A: All right, we're way over time.
Pmt. Thank you very much for coming on joining us.
[00:38:25] Speaker B: This is awesome. Great.
[00:38:26] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:38:26] Speaker B: Thank you for having me.
[00:38:27] Speaker A: And you're in the city now.
[00:38:28] Speaker B: Yeah.
[00:38:28] Speaker A: So maybe we'll see you again sometime soon. Or drop by for stream. We'll crash a stream.
[00:38:34] Speaker C: That's what we should do.
[00:38:35] Speaker A: Who the hell are these guys? What are they doing on my laptop right now? All right, thank you, brother. Appreciate it.
[00:38:40] Speaker B: Thank you.
[00:38:41] Speaker C: Appreciate it.
